General-purpose technologies become waves when they diffuse widely. Without an epic and near-uncontrolled global diffusion, it’s not a wave; it’s a historical curiosity. Once diffusion starts, however, the process echoes throughout history, from agriculture’s spread throughout the Eurasian landmass to the slow scattering of water mills out from the Roman Empire across Europe. Once a technology gets traction, once a wave starts building, the historical pattern we saw with cars is clear.
Proliferation is catalyzed by two forces: demand and the resulting cost decreases, each of which drives technology to become even better and cheaper.
Civilization’s appetite for useful and cheaper technologies is boundless. This will not change.
Gutenberg just wanted to make money printing Bibles. Yet his press catalyzed the Scientific Revolution and the Reformation, and so became the greatest threat to the Catholic Church since its establishment.
In most cases, containment is about meaningful control, the capability to stop a use case, change a research direction, or deny access to harmful actors. It means preserving the ability to steer waves to ensure their impact reflects our values,
Technology is not an adversary; it’s a basic property of human society. Containing technology needs to be a much more fundamental program, a balance of power not between competing actors but between humans and our tools. It’s a necessary prerequisite for the survival of our species over the next century.
Aided by a lack of modern communications tools, China kept the secret of silk making under wraps for centuries, but it got out in the end thanks to two determined Nestorian monks in 552 CE. Technologies are ideas, and ideas cannot be eliminated.
